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In early April, with the onset of a major shift in U.S. trade policy, global financial market volatility increased materially. The U.S. Treasury and currency markets saw unusual trading activity, which spilled into the stock market. In the ensuing days, a stream of reports and articles began questioning the credibility of the U.S. dollar (USD) […]
The winds of change blew strong this past quarter, with new trends emerging and others shifting. Specifically, global risks have increased, a move towards globalization is shifting to reshoring, and long-term disinflationary trends, as well as the age of quantitative easing, appear to be paused.Just as the latest COVID-19 surge began to fade in early […]
The economic and financial market backdrops are changing, and the news headlines have been quite disconcerting. After averaging gains of 20% for the previous three years, the stock market is experiencing a correction, with the S&P 500 Index down about 10% year-to-date. Some corrective market action was to be expected and a healthy tonic for […]
U.S. monetary policy is more active than ever, with the Federal Reserve exerting considerable influence on the global financial and economic environment. We believe that the current landscape may warrant asset allocation shifts in investment portfolios. <br> Background – The Rising Influence of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve was established by Congress in 1913 […]
A new year has arrived, along with renewed hope and determination for a better future. Our thoughts are with those grappling with the physical, social, and emotional effects of the current surge in Covid-19 cases.Looking back on the past year from an economic and investment perspective, 2021 provided robust economic growth and strong gains in […]
As we approach year-end, it’s natural to reflect on the investment year that was and, more importantly, consider where to find investment opportunities going forward. Given domestic stocks have performed exceptionally in 2021, investors are increasingly interested in the outlook for equity returns globally. Stocks have come a long way since the depths of the […]
The U.S. economy continues its recovery from early 2020. However, economic indicators point to a slowing rate of growth. Estimates for annual GDP growth for 2021 have come down from 6-8% to around 5.5%. Currently, intense negotiations for additional fiscal stimulus are occurring in our country’s capital and we expect that a substantial stimulus package […]
Two features define the current economic and financial market backdrop. The first and most obvious is the significant increase in government involvement in both areas. Second, and as a direct result of the first, the world is awash in liquidity. By liquidity we mean that cheap money is available to almost anyone who seeks it, […]
Here comes the sun. Across the country, Americans are enjoying summer and the relaxation of Covid restrictions. The optimistic mood extends to very positive economic trends. With widespread vaccination and low case counts, the economy is rebounding strongly and on track for annual GDP growth of 6-8%, the best rate experienced in many years. Pent-up U.S. […]
Take yourself back to 2019 when the year was drawing to a close. Imagine being told:2020 will be the year when our hospitals will be overwhelmed, offices will close indefinitely, scores of workers will be sent home and lose their jobs, and the developed world will be on sporadic lockdown. Now, imagine also being told that […]
We have come a long way in the last twelve months. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, concerned governments around the world closed large portions of their economies, restricting commerce and the socialization of their citizens. The commensurate economic recession was one of the shortest on record, as the monetary authorities (Central Banks), stepped aggressively […]
Investors in the United States have endured a tremendous amount of turbulence in 2020. We have experienced a large-scale worldwide pandemic for the first time in over a century; a highly contested presidential election; social unrest; a record quarterly drop in gross domestic product; and a sharp, fast decline in stock prices followed by a […]
Calendar year 2020 is over, and it will be one for the history books. The COVID-19 global pandemic, combined with a contentious presidential race and a polarized electorate, deeply affected our investment markets, economy, political landscape, and personal lives. The past 12 months were exceptionally challenging in many ways, and yet, looking ahead to the […]
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