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Over modern U.S. history, we’ve hardly gone a moment without hearing predictions of America’s imminent downfall. In that sense, you might say that declinism is one of the great American past times. During his 1960 Presidential campaign, John F. Kennedy painted a scary picture of a Russian enemy well on its way to world domination […]
On April 2nd, President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs triggered a global equity sell-off. In their current form, they will affect nearly all U.S. trade. The speed and scale of these trade actions have been stunning. Using the President’s first term as a point of reference, tariffs were levied about 14 months into the term, […]
The following message was originally distributed to clients on April 4, 2025. Yesterday, the President’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sparked the stock market’s worst trading day since 2020. That volatility could continue. In the fog of bad news, our reflex is to look to expert predictions. It gives us the illusion of control. But time and […]
Over modern U.S. history, we’ve hardly gone a moment without hearing predictions of America’s imminent downfall. In that sense, you might say that declinism is one of the great American past times. During his 1960 Presidential campaign, John F. Kennedy painted a scary picture of a Russian enemy well on its way to world domination […]
After several years of low interest rates, bond yields have been attractive for the past few years. While a recent turning point in central bank policy has slightly lowered yields, today’s bond market offers a unique combination of capital preservation and income in an increasingly complex economic landscape. Our current fixed income investment strategy is […]
The U.S. economy and capital markets performed well in the third quarter of 2024. It’s hard to predict whether this strength will continue as we face a mixed bag of signals. No matter the environment, our focus on high-quality investments both provides protection during turmoil and participation in the market’s growth. The domestic economy is […]
As of early-August, US stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up about 12% in 2024. A first-half rally wasn’t supposed to happen for a number of reasons. Entering the year, the market traded at over 19x forward earnings – not particularly cheap. The Fed Funds rate had exceeded 5% since Summer 2023, putting […]
The U.S. economy keeps growing even in the face of high interest rates. Consumers are spending, businesses are investing, and the labor market is strong. Though these conditions have shown signs of slowing, they’ve supported a white-hot stock market: the S&P 500 was up over 40% in the eighteen months trailing June 30th. All eyes […]
“It is waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” – Charlie Munger In the investment field like many other undertakings in life, activity does not equal achievement. During periods of significant change, investors may be better served by stepping back, assessing risks and possible outcomes before changing […]
The U.S. economy’s resilience to high interest rates continued in the first quarter of 2024. Despite widespread expectations for an economic downturn, 2023 ended on a high note, with 3.2% growth in the fourth quarter marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth at or above market, which in turn is supporting strong consumer spending. However, […]
As we welcome a new year, we take stock of 2023 and consider what the year ahead might hold in store. Last year was a good year for investors and the U.S. economy. The economy grew, bonds offered positive real returns (beat inflation), and stocks soared. However, a general backdrop of unease, characterized by a […]
The U.S. economy has withstood the effects of higher interest rates better than expected, as what feels like the most anticipated recession of all time has not yet materialized. Leading economic indicators, which predict a change in the business cycle, have been flashing red for nearly a year and a half. These include an inverted […]
Financial markets can catch investors off guard. This year has been a case study of how market rallies can occur in the face of seemingly bad news. Domestic equities roared higher in the first seven months of 2023, with the S&P 500 up more than 19% from the start of the year, while the tech-heavy […]
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