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Over modern U.S. history, we’ve hardly gone a moment without hearing predictions of America’s imminent downfall. In that sense, you might say that declinism is one of the great American past times. During his 1960 Presidential campaign, John F. Kennedy painted a scary picture of a Russian enemy well on its way to world domination […]
It’s been a little over a year since the Federal Reserve began their aggressive tightening cycle to combat persistent inflation, increasing short-term interest rates from 0% to 5%. The central bank’s actions have resulted in higher long-term interest rates, lower stock prices, and lower real estate values. The sharp increase in interest rates and subsequent […]
In life, few things put us at the mercy of our emotions the way investing can. The last three years in the markets have been especially unnerving, exhibiting the plot elements of a Shakespeare play. We witnessed drama as the world locked down during Covid, a supernatural-like intervention by Congress and the Federal Reserve to […]
As we welcome a new calendar year, we pause to reflect upon the one which has concluded and consider what 2023 might offer investors. 2022 was a tumultuous year in the financial markets, with double-digit losses for both stocks and bonds. A rapid rise in inflation and interest rates served as the catalyst for the […]
“The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more […]
After dropping borrowing rates to zero during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has dramatically changed course in a bid to fight inflation. As we’ve written about before, higher rates have two key effects: a psychological one – weighing on risk appetite – and a mathematical one, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash […]
In last quarter’s newsletter, equity analyst Dan Mintz considered equity investment in an inflationary environment. Today, we will discuss how the fixed income landscape is changing and share our resultant investment strategy. <br> INFLATION, RECESSION, AND YIELD CURVE SIGNALS With prices for everyday purchases like food and gas remaining high, inflation continues to be […]
There were very few places to hide during the year’s first half as both equity and fixed income markets suffered heavy losses. With companies and consumers facing the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the U.S. Federal Reserve recently, and perhaps belatedly, raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. Rapidly rising interest rates swiftly brought […]
As a key tenet of our mission at Clifford Swan is to preserve and grow our clients’ wealth, inflation protection is always on our minds. Recently, however, the topic has made national headlines, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ended March 2022 rising 8.5% versus the previous year—the highest jump since 1981. […]
The winds of change blew strong this past quarter, with new trends emerging and others shifting. Specifically, global risks have increased, a move towards globalization is shifting to reshoring, and long-term disinflationary trends, as well as the age of quantitative easing, appear to be paused.Just as the latest COVID-19 surge began to fade in early […]
The economic and financial market backdrops are changing, and the news headlines have been quite disconcerting. After averaging gains of 20% for the previous three years, the stock market is experiencing a correction, with the S&P 500 Index down about 10% year-to-date. Some corrective market action was to be expected and a healthy tonic for […]
U.S. monetary policy is more active than ever, with the Federal Reserve exerting considerable influence on the global financial and economic environment. We believe that the current landscape may warrant asset allocation shifts in investment portfolios. <br> Background – The Rising Influence of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve was established by Congress in 1913 […]
A new year has arrived, along with renewed hope and determination for a better future. Our thoughts are with those grappling with the physical, social, and emotional effects of the current surge in Covid-19 cases.Looking back on the past year from an economic and investment perspective, 2021 provided robust economic growth and strong gains in […]
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