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A lot has changed in the financial markets over the last seven months, including the transition to the Warsh Federal Reserve era. When President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair at the beginning of the year, there was wide anticipation that Warsh would be hawkish and narrowly focused, prioritizing […]
As we welcome a new calendar year, we pause to reflect upon the one which has concluded and consider what 2023 might offer investors. 2022 was a tumultuous year in the financial markets, with double-digit losses for both stocks and bonds. A rapid rise in inflation and interest rates served as the catalyst for the […]
“The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more […]
After dropping borrowing rates to zero during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has dramatically changed course in a bid to fight inflation. As we’ve written about before, higher rates have two key effects: a psychological one – weighing on risk appetite – and a mathematical one, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash […]
In last quarter’s newsletter, equity analyst Dan Mintz considered equity investment in an inflationary environment. Today, we will discuss how the fixed income landscape is changing and share our resultant investment strategy. <br> INFLATION, RECESSION, AND YIELD CURVE SIGNALS With prices for everyday purchases like food and gas remaining high, inflation continues to be […]
There were very few places to hide during the year’s first half as both equity and fixed income markets suffered heavy losses. With companies and consumers facing the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the U.S. Federal Reserve recently, and perhaps belatedly, raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. Rapidly rising interest rates swiftly brought […]
As a key tenet of our mission at Clifford Swan is to preserve and grow our clients’ wealth, inflation protection is always on our minds. Recently, however, the topic has made national headlines, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ended March 2022 rising 8.5% versus the previous year—the highest jump since 1981. […]
The winds of change blew strong this past quarter, with new trends emerging and others shifting. Specifically, global risks have increased, a move towards globalization is shifting to reshoring, and long-term disinflationary trends, as well as the age of quantitative easing, appear to be paused.Just as the latest COVID-19 surge began to fade in early […]
The economic and financial market backdrops are changing, and the news headlines have been quite disconcerting. After averaging gains of 20% for the previous three years, the stock market is experiencing a correction, with the S&P 500 Index down about 10% year-to-date. Some corrective market action was to be expected and a healthy tonic for […]
U.S. monetary policy is more active than ever, with the Federal Reserve exerting considerable influence on the global financial and economic environment. We believe that the current landscape may warrant asset allocation shifts in investment portfolios. <br> Background – The Rising Influence of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve was established by Congress in 1913 […]
A new year has arrived, along with renewed hope and determination for a better future. Our thoughts are with those grappling with the physical, social, and emotional effects of the current surge in Covid-19 cases.Looking back on the past year from an economic and investment perspective, 2021 provided robust economic growth and strong gains in […]
As we approach year-end, it’s natural to reflect on the investment year that was and, more importantly, consider where to find investment opportunities going forward. Given domestic stocks have performed exceptionally in 2021, investors are increasingly interested in the outlook for equity returns globally. Stocks have come a long way since the depths of the […]
The U.S. economy continues its recovery from early 2020. However, economic indicators point to a slowing rate of growth. Estimates for annual GDP growth for 2021 have come down from 6-8% to around 5.5%. Currently, intense negotiations for additional fiscal stimulus are occurring in our country’s capital and we expect that a substantial stimulus package […]
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